Could Arizona shift Democratic?

How liberal or centrist could make a big difference

COLORS -- FROM BLUE TO RED --RED TO BLUE.

WILL ARIZONASWITCH?

WHAT POLITICAL EXPERTSARE NOW SAYING.GOOD EVENING AND THANKS FORJOINING US.

I'M VALERIECAVAZOS.

I'M PAT PARRIS.LAST YEAR -- VOTERS ELECTEDKYRSTEN SINEMA TO ARIZONA'SOPEN SENATE SEAT.

SHE'S THEFIRST DEMOCRATIC SENATOR FROMARIZONA -- SINCE 1995.

NINE ONYOUR SIDE'S CRAIG SMITH TALKEDTO A POLITICAL SCIENTIST -- ATTHE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA --ABOUT HOW OUR STATE'S POLITICSCOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING --THIS YEAR.

WHAT DID YOU LEARNCRAIG?STATES AND THEIR PARTYLOYALTIES CAN CHANGE OVERTIME.

FOR MANY YEARS THE SOUTHIDENTIFIED AS DEMOCRAT BUTOFTEN WITH CONSERVATIVEPHILOSOPHIES THAT MOVED MANYSOUTHERNERS TOWARD THEREPUBLICANS.

NOW ANALYSTS SAYARIZONA MAY BE EVOLVING FROM ASTRONG REPUBLICAN STATE TO ASTATE WITH A POSSIBILITY OFVOTING DEMOCRAT.

BUT OF COURSETHE VOTERS WILL HAVE THE LASTWORD.UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONAPOLITICAL SCIENTIST KATE KENSKISAYS IN 2008 THE OBAMACAMPAIGN USED THE IDEA THATARIZONA MIGHT SWING DEMOCRATICTO LURE THE MCCAIN CAMPAIGNINTO BURNING ITS MORE LIMITEDCAMPAIGN FUNDS TO TRY TO HOLDONTO THE STATE.

MCCAIN STILLCARRIED ARIZONA BY ABOUT EIGHTAND A HALF PERCENT.

I THINKWHAT MAKES THIS SEASON UNIQUEIS THAT ARIZONA COULDGENUINELY BE IN PLAY FOR THEDEMOCRATS, NOT JUST AS ASTRATEGY TO SIPHON OFF MONEYFROM THE REPUBLICANS BUTGENUINELY IN PLAY." BUT KENSKISAYS NOW ARIZONA COULD TURNLEFT --- AS LONG AS IT'S NOT AHARD LEFT.

SHE SEES KRYSTENSINEMA'S SUCCESS IN THE SENATERACE AS A SIGN ARIZONANS WILLELECT DEMOCRATS---BUT CENTRISTDEMOCRATS.

BUT FIRST THERE'SARIZONA'S PRESIDENTIALPREFERENCE VOTE FOR MARCH17TH.

ONLY THE DEMOCRATS AREHOLDING A VOTE.

BUT IF THEREPUBLICANS WERE VOTING INARIZONA'S PRESIDENTIALPREFERENCE KENSKI SAYS THEY'DTEND TO BE THE MOSTCONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS WHILETHE VOTE WILL PROBABLY BRINGOUT THE MOST LIBERAL OF THEDEMOCRATS.

THAT CAN LEAD TOBOTH PARTIES CHOOSINGCANDIDATES WHO TURN OFF MORECENTRIST INDEPENDENTS.

"ANDSO, IF THE DEMOCRATS CHOOSESOMEONE WHO IS ON THAT VERYLIBERAL END, YOU KNOW, THEYMIGHT FEEL GOOD ABOUT IT, THATMIGHT REALLY REPRESENT WHERETHEIR GROUP IS, BUT THEYSHOULD BE THINKING CAN THISPERSON WIN THE GENERALELECTION."KENSKI SAYS FOR A LOT OFVOTERS COULD DECIDE BASED ONECONOMICS---BUT IT WILL BEECONOMICS MORE PERSONAL THANTHE STOCK MARKET OR THE BROADGENERAL ECONOMY.

THEY'LLDECIDE BASED ON THE SECTION OFTHE ECONOMY WITH THE DIRECTIMPACT ON THEM---MAYBEFARMING---OR TRADE.

CRAIGSMITH, KGU