Canada strikes more deals for COVID-19 vaccine, but may have to wait in line behind other nations

Capping a flurry of procurement announcements Monday, the federal government made a bold claim: Canada would be at the “front of the line” to receive COVID-19 vaccines when they’re ready.

It was a reassuring boast, since even the government admits that rolling out a safe and effective vaccine is crucial to defeating the pandemic.

But a closer look at the announcement of pre-order deals with four leading companies makes it less clear that Canadians will indeed be among the first to get inoculated.

Two of the experimental shots are still several months to a year away from completing trials and potentially winning approval. The government has secured less than 30 million guaranteed doses of the other two, more-advanced products, and that comes after other nations have already placed their orders.

Meanwhile, Canada has yet to sign a deal with a consortium between Oxford University and AstraZeneca that is predicting it will have a vaccine ready to inject before the end of 2020. Countries from the U.K. to Japan, Australia and Brazil have already done so.

Pressed on timing, Procurement Minister Anita Anand said Monday Canada could start getting vaccine “as early as the first quarter of 2021.”

That would still be miraculous, given the years it usually takes to develop a brand new vaccine. Many poorer nations have struck no such contracts at all.

But some countries that have pre-ordered the Oxford shot, for instance, could be taking delivery before the end of 2020, potentially enabling them to more fully re-open their economies sooner. Millions of doses have already been produced on spec.

“We have been the slowest Western country in the world to arrange a vaccine supply,” charged Amir Attaran, a University of Ottawa law professor and health policy expert. “I’m worried Canadians are going to watch Americans and Europeans getting vaccinated on TV while we’re still sitting in lockdown.”

Unlike some other countries, Canada has also not revealed how much it has paid to gain advanced access to potential vaccines, saying it doesn’t want to undermine its negotiating strategy on further deals.

But Anand vigorously defended her government’s efforts, saying they have put Canada “at the front of the line.”

“The mere existence of these contractual arrangements places Canada well ahead of most countries,” she said. “When a vaccine is ready, Canada will be ready.”

The minister also stressed that inking agreements with the various makers of COVID-19 vaccines has been no easy task.

“Concluding these contracts is not simply a matter of distributing a standard-form contract and having vaccine suppliers agree to our preferred terms,” said Anand. “The environment is intense, the demand is high and each negotiation is unique.”

Ottawa’s first attempt to secure a leading vaccine candidate quietly collapsed last week, the government scrapping its arrangement with China’s CanSino after Chinese authorities failed to provide samples for use in a planned trial here.

It has also invested heavily in Canadian, or Canadian-connected vaccine projects, including Quebec’s Medicago, Massachusetts-based VBI, and the University of Saskatchewan’s VIDO-InterVac. Those vaccines, though, are at relatively early stages, either preparing for or just starting phase-1 trials.

But in early August, the government said it had reached agreements to obtain vaccine from Pfizer and Moderna, two of about a half dozen worldwide that are already in final, phase-3 trials, which determine if a vaccine actually works.

The government filled in some details Monday, revealing it had obtained promises of a guaranteed six million doses from Moderna, with an option for 50 million more, and a guaranteed 20 million from Pfizer.

Pfizer, working with German company BioNTech, has said it could be ready to deliver vaccine as early as this fall, assuming successful trials and regulatory approval. But at least three other countries, the U.K., U.S. and Japan, pre-ordered a combined 750 million doses earlier, according to Pfizer news releases.

Anand did not answer directly when asked if Canada would have to wait behind other countries to receive its supply, but said the government had been “very aggressive” in negotiating delivery dates.

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Canada has also contracted for a guaranteed 52 million doses of a vaccine developed by Maryland’s Novavax, with an option for 24 million more; and a guaranteed 10 million of a Johnson and Johnson vaccine, plus an optional 28 million more.

Novavax, though, only started its phase-2 trial Monday, and Johnson and Johnson is early in phase-2, meaning those candidates are several months away from possible approval.

Anand said the government is in talks with other manufacturers, too, including AstraZeneca, with more announcements expected.

AstraZeneca hopes to have preliminary results from its combined phase-2/3 trials by October. If successful, the first lots could be available before the end of 2020, said Carlo Mastrangelo, a company spokesman.

However, the U.S., U.K., Australia, Japan, Brazil and India are among the countries that had made advance deals for that vaccine previoulsy.

If Canada could obtain a licence to make the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine here, that might speed up rollout, helped by another development announced Monday, said Attaran.

The government said it was investing $126 million to expand the National Research Council’s manufacturing facility in Montreal, a public-private partnership that could see the plant making two million vaccine doses a month by mid-2021. It should be able to produce 250,000 monthly by November, said a news release.