How Will the Economy Recover? Experts Predictions are Changing

Experts are changing their predictions when it comes to the type of economic recovery the U.S. will have.

Alicia Nieves takes a closer look at how experts view what will happen next with our economy.

EXPERTS ARE CHANGING THEIRPREDICTIONS WHEN IT COMES TO THETYPE OFECONOMIC RECOVERY THE U-S ISEXPECTED TO HAVE.ALICIA NIEVES TAKES A CLOSERLOOK AT WHAT THEY THINK WILLHAPPEN NEXT WHEN ITCOMES TO THE ECONOMY.WHEN THINKING ABOUT HOW THEAMERICAN ECONOMY WILLRECOVER..MANY TURN TO LETTERSFOR ANSWERS.USUALLY THE LETTERSV-U-L.

"V" STANDS FOR A V-SHAPERECOVERY... A BEST-CASE SCENARIOINWHICH OUR ECONOMY COMES OUT OFTHIS SHARP DOWNTURN WITHBUSINESSES OPENING ANDEVERYONE QUICKLY GOING BACK TOWORK, ESSENTIALLY AN EQUALLYSHARP BOUNCE BACK.

IN, AU-SHAPE RECOVERY, THE ECONOMY,INCLUDING THE LABOR MARKETREBOUND JUSTLITTLE BIT SLOWER.L,IS THE DREADED SCENARIO.

ITWOULD MEAN WE WOULD LINGER INTHIS DOWNTURN FOR QUITE AWHILE... JUSTBARELY CRAWLING OUT OF IT AFTERA LONG PERIOD OF TIME."A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE SCARED."A FEW WEEKS AGO WE SPOKE TO AGROUP OF ECONOMISTS ANDFINANCIAL EXPERTS...MOST SAIDTHEN, THEY FELT THE U.S. WOULDSEE THAT QUICK REBOUND, A "V"SHAPE RECOVERY..."IF EVERYONE IS REALLY GOODABOUT DOING WHAT NEEDS TO BEDONE...IT COULD BE COMING BACKINTO THINGS AS USUAL.""WE CAN TURN THIS AROUND THISYEAR, I STILL THINK THERE'S REALHOPE FOR THAT." BUT A LOT HASCHANGED SINCE MARCH...."I DON'T THINK THAT ANYMORE.TODD MCCRAKEN, IS AMONGST THOSEWHO NOW BELIEVE IT WILL TAKE THEU.S. SLIGHTLY LONGER TO GET JOBSWHEN THIS THING TURNS IT IS NOTGOING TOTURN UNIFORMLY ACROSS THECOUNTRY.

SO EVEN IF I AS THEBUSINESS OWNER AM READY TO DOBUSINESSAGAIN, IN MY AREA WHERE WEFLATTEN THE CURVE OR REDUCE THECURVE, IT DOESN'T FOLLOW THAT MYVENDORS, MY CUSTOMERS, MY SUPPLYCHAIN ARE IN THE SAMESPOT."MCCRAKEN BELIEVES WE AREMOSTLIKELY NOW TO SEE A "U" SHAPERECOVERY, AND MANY EXPERTSAGREE.IN FACT IN A RECENTREUTERSPOLL OF 50 ECONOMISTS, HALF THERESPONDENTS PREDICTA U SHAPERECOVERY.

WITH ONLY AFEW EXPERTS, POINTING TO SOMELESS LIKELY AND UNUSUAL RECOVERYSHAPES... FOR UNUSUALTIMES."I THINK THAT IT MIGHT BE ASHORT V FOLLOWED BY A LONGERSLANT, SOME PEOPLE ARECALLINGTHIS ASQUARE ROOT RECOVERY.""I THINK WE WILL SEE THERE IS ALOTOF PENT UP DEMAND FOR A LOTOF ACTIVITIES THAT PEOPLE AREUNABLETO DO WHILE THEY ARE SOCIALDISTANCING.

BUT AT THE SAME TIMEA LOT OF SECTORS WILL HAVESTRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT WILLJUST TAKE SOME TIME."REGARDLESS OF WHETHER WE SEE ATRADITIONAL RECOVERY TRAJECTORYOR ONE OF THESE NEW SHAPESSOME ARE PREDICTING, THE KEY ISALL EXPERTS STILL AGREED THEECONOMY WILL BOUNCE BACK... ANDSOWILL WE.

I'M ALICIA NIEVESREPORTING.WELL TODAY CERTAINLY FELT LIKESPRING HERE IN MID-MICHIGA